2025-01-17 Sing Pao's Column (w/English translation)《真金白銀》

Gold Prices Rebound, Focus on U.S. CPI Data

On Wednesday (January 15), during the Asian trading session, gold prices initially fell but later stabilized, trading mainly around $2,680. U.S. inflation data came in slightly below market expectations, leading investors to anticipate continued Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, resulting in a weaker U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, concerns over policy uncertainties from newly inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump provided additional support to gold prices. However, rising U.S. bond yields may limit further gains in gold.

In the physical gold market, Poland led all central banks in gold purchases in 2024. By the end of 2024, Poland had accumulated over 90 tons of gold. With some national currencies continuing to weaken against the U.S. dollar, more countries may continue to use gold as a diversification tool for their reserves.

Technical Analysis of Gold PricesGold has recently formed a triangle consolidation pattern, and whether it can break through the upper or lower boundaries will determine its future direction. On the upside, gold faces resistance at the October 23 low of around $2,708. A breakout above this level could reignite bullish momentum and challenge the all-time high of $2,790.

On the downside, the first support level is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at around $2,670. If breached, gold could extend its decline toward the 100-day SMA near $2,635. A further key support level is the rising trendline at $2,622, and a breakdown below this could reverse the current bullish trend.

Silver Market AnalysisSilver remains in a narrow range around $30, after a slight rebound in the previous trading session. It is currently holding above the 14-day moving average resistance at $29.73, with market sentiment remaining neutral and the short-term direction still unclear.

On the downside, the initial support for silver stands at $28.75, which was the four-month low recorded on December 19. A break below this level could trigger further selling pressure, pushing prices toward the key psychological level of $28. On the upside, silver has yet to stabilize above $30.60 and may require gold's steady ascent to provide upward momentum.

Cryptocurrency Market UpdatesBitcoin (BTC) is fluctuating within the $90,000 to $97,000 range, with sufficient liquidity in the market. This week, BTC quickly bounced back from $89,000 to $97,000 in less than 24 hours. BTC needs to break above the $100,000 mark in the short term to reach new highs. If it falls back below the $90,000 level, it could indicate a short-term peak, potentially leading to a deeper correction.

On the regulatory front, with the new U.S. administration taking office and the appointment of a new SEC chairman, the crypto market is hopeful for regulatory innovation. Several investment firms are looking to launch ETF products based on alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) later this year. If Solana and Ripple (XRP) ETFs are successfully introduced, they could provide significant growth for their respective ecosystems, although market demand for these products remains relatively limited, and their overall impact may be moderate.