2025-11-21 Sing Pao's Column《真金白銀》(English translation) Gold Prices in Tug of War Ahead of NFP

Gold Prices in Tug of War Ahead of NFP

Gold prices surged early Wednesday (Nov 19), briefly hitting $4,132 before retreating rapidly as the U.S. dollar index extended its gains. The hawkish tone in the FOMC minutes pushed the dollar to a two-week high, curbing gold’s rally. Gold ultimately closed just $10 higher at $4,078. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown—the longest in history—prompted the Bureau of Labor Statistics to declare that October’s unemployment rate will never be released. October and November’s non-farm payroll reports will be combined and published on December 16. Meanwhile, attention shifts to the delayed release of September’s NFP report, scheduled for today (Nov 20).

From a technical standpoint, gold remains above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, suggesting a broadly bullish trend, although the 20-day SMA is trending lower and sits near $4,065, offering short-term support. The RSI stands at a neutral 55, indicating some loss of upward momentum. Near-term resistance is seen between $4,130 and $4,154, followed by $4,182. If prices hold above the psychological $4,000 level, the bullish bias remains intact; a close below could trigger a deeper pullback toward $3,845.

Silver rebounded from the $49.35 area and reclaimed levels above $51.80 as investor anxiety over an AI-driven equity bubble drove flows into safe havens. Weak U.S. labor data also fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, providing a further boost. Technically, silver has broken above the $51.25 resistance zone, with the 4H RSI stabilizing above the 50 mark—suggesting bullish momentum. The next resistance lies at the Nov 14 high of $53.65, with initial support at $50.70 and trendline support further below.

In the crypto space, Bitcoin fell below the critical $100,000 level, triggering a wave of panic-selling. Over $1 billion in liquidations occurred in derivatives markets, with more than 80% being long positions. While funding rates turned positive and open interest surged, spot volumes shrank—a setup that could magnify downside volatility in the event of further weakness. Though the U.S. shutdown may be ending soon, it marks not a conclusion but the beginning of a new phase in market dynamics. Investors should avoid FOMO on the way up and resist panic on the way down. Staying rational and focused on fundamentals with disciplined risk management remains essential.

Disclaimer: The content of this column is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial products. Investment involves risk. Readers should carefully evaluate their personal circumstances and seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions.