2025-06-12 Sing Pao's Column《真金白銀》(English translation) Rising Middle East Tensions Push Gold Prices Higher

Rising Middle East Tensions Push Gold Prices Higher

As tensions between China and the U.S. ease and global market sentiment improves, the release of lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data has further fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates in September. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East — including the U.S. preparing to evacuate its embassy in Iraq — have triggered a surge in safe-haven demand, lifting gold prices back above USD 3,370 per ounce during the Asian session.

President Donald Trump has recently issued multiple public warnings, stating that if Iran refuses to compromise in ongoing nuclear negotiations, the U.S. may resort to military action. Iran, for its part, has responded with a defiant stance, raising fears of a broader conflict. This uncertainty has driven investors toward gold as a protective asset.

From a technical standpoint, gold prices have repeatedly found support at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of USD 3,297 earlier this week, rebounding strongly thereafter. This level remains a key short-term support; a breach could trigger a deeper correction. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above the midline at around 55, suggesting potential for further gains. To confirm upside momentum, gold must stabilize in the USD 3,355 to USD 3,370 range before challenging the critical USD 3,400 level. If the upcoming indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran on June 15 fail to yield progress, safe-haven demand may intensify, pushing gold to break above USD 3,435 and possibly aim for the historical high of USD 3,500.

Silver, meanwhile, has pulled back slightly from overbought levels as U.S.-China trade tensions ease. The price remains above USD 36.00, but the RSI at 67 suggests that bullish momentum is stretched and a short-term consolidation or pullback may follow. Silver recently broke above the key resistance level of USD 35.95 (last seen in October 2012), but failed to hold above USD 36.60, forming a near-term peak at USD 37.49. Key support lies at the 10-day SMA of USD 35.12, followed by the USD 35.00–34.87 zone. Deeper corrections may test USD 34.00 or even the 50-day SMA at USD 33.00 — a scenario that may depend on gold's performance.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has held the USD 100,000 level with difficulty. If it can stay above the key support at USD 105,000, there remains potential for a June rally toward the USD 120,000–125,000 range. On-chain data reveals that long-term Bitcoin holders now collectively hold a record 14.46 million BTC, underscoring sustained investor confidence. Despite a 30% correction earlier, Bitcoin has rebounded sharply, approaching its all-time high again. These long-term holders continue to stay put, reflecting strong bullish sentiment and helping to reduce circulating supply — a factor likely to support future upward movement. Disclaimer:

The content of this column is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any financial products. Investing involves risks. Readers should carefully evaluate their own circumstances and seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions.