2025-09-26 Sing Pao's Column《真金白銀》(English translation) Risk-Off Sentiment Cools, Gold Under Pressure

Risk-Off Sentiment Cools, Gold Under Pressure

With geopolitical tensions easing and both the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields rebounding, gold prices retreated sharply from their all-time highs. On Wednesday, spot gold fell to USD 3,717, marking a significant pullback from Tuesday’s record peak of USD 3,790. The retracement was driven by a confluence of factors: a 0.65% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index, a rise in 10-year Treasury yields, and signs of diplomatic progress—such as Trump’s proposal for a Gaza peace framework, a U.S.–Russia foreign ministers' meeting reiterating peaceful resolutions, and a new EU–U.S. tariff agreement—all of which softened market risk aversion and triggered profit-taking.

Gold Technical Outlook: Trend Intact Despite Cooling Momentum

Despite short-term pressure, technical indicators remain supportive of the broader uptrend. On the daily chart, momentum remains in positive territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds steady near 79, signaling persistent overbought conditions.

In the 4-hour chart, gold has entered a consolidation phase, with indicators retreating from extreme levels. Near-term support lies at USD 3,736 and USD 3,695. A rebound above USD 3,758 would help reestablish upward momentum and potentially retest recent highs. Overall, while a pause in the rally is underway, the underlying bullish structure remains unbroken.

Silver Consolidates at Multi-Year Highs, Awaiting Breakout

Silver continues to hover around a 14-year high near USD 44.10, supported by expectations of continued Fed easing. Technically, the metal remains within a defined ascending channel. After an early-week pullback, the 14-day RSI has corrected from overbought levels and now hovers slightly above 50, suggesting ongoing positive momentum.

Resistance is seen near USD 44.35, followed by the psychological barrier at USD 45.00. On the downside, a break below the 25-day internal low of USD 43.60 would expose support at USD 42.95. A move below the USD 43.00 handle could trigger dip-buying interest near USD 42.55, reinforcing technical support.

Crypto Markets: Flash Crash Signals Healthy Correction, Not Trend Reversal

This week saw a dramatic shakeout in crypto markets. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropped below USD 112,000, and Ethereum (ETH) fell under USD 4,100, sparking a sharp correction that wiped out over USD 1.7 to 1.8 billion in leveraged positions across the ecosystem in 24 hours.

Most market observers view this decline as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, cooling excessive greed and leverage that had built up. The Fed’s cautiously dovish stance limits the upside for risk assets in the near term. Nevertheless, the crypto market remains ripe with potential catalysts—from the approval of more spot ETFs to increased institutional adoption by tech giants—that could push prices to new highs. For long-term investors, this pullback may represent a buying opportunity, not a reason to panic.

📌 Disclaimer

This column is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial product. Investing involves risk. Readers should assess their personal circumstances carefully and seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions.