2025-11-14 Sing Pao's Column《真金白銀》(English translation) Gold Struggles Below Key Resistance

Gold Struggles Below Key Resistance

Gold resumed its rally on Wednesday after a period of consolidation, as investors turned cautious ahead of a critical U.S. Congressional vote to end the record-long government shutdown. The House of Representatives is set to vote on a stopgap funding bill later Wednesday, which would extend funding for most federal agencies through January 30, 2026, and for some departments through September 30, 2026. Signs of progress toward reopening the government helped calm risk sentiment. Investors now await the release of delayed U.S. economic data, which will provide clearer guidance on the Federal Reserve's policy direction.

Technically, gold remains supported by dovish Fed expectations and a weakening dollar. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 68, just below the overbought threshold. A confirmed breakout above the $4,150 resistance marks the end of the recent consolidation phase, paving the way toward $4,200. A clean break above this level could bring a retest of the all-time high near $4,381. On the downside, previous resistance at $4,150 now acts as immediate support, followed by $4,100 and the 100-day moving average zone near $4,050–$4,022.

Silver also broke above the $51 level and is now trading around $53.40, closing in on the historical peak of $54.46, which serves as a critical resistance level. Technical indicators remain bullish, with upward-sloping moving averages offering strong support. However, momentum indicators like RSI have entered overbought territory, suggesting a risk of short-term correction. A drop below $50.55 would likely signal a shift in trend, potentially forming a double-top pattern.

In the cryptocurrency space, the market is undergoing a structural shift in liquidity. Bitcoin’s total available sell-side liquidity has declined to around 1.27 million coins — the lowest in years — particularly from whale and institutional wallets. Meanwhile, exchange reserves have remained stable. Despite recent volatility, institutional investors remain optimistic. With regulatory clarity improving and ETF infrastructure maturing, barriers to entry have dropped, and Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a viable component of diversified investment portfolios.

Disclaimer: This column is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial products. Investment involves risks. Readers should carefully assess their own situation and seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions.