2025-03-07 Sing Pao's Column《真金白銀》(w/ English translation)

Gold prices remain volatile as the U.S. continues implementing tariffs on multiple countries, with additional tariff plans targeting European nations set to take effect. Gold’s status as a safe-haven asset remains strong, keeping prices above the critical $2,900 level. However, with the U.S. nonfarm payroll report set to be released this Friday, investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, limiting the metal’s upward momentum. Meanwhile, tensions in the physical gold market have eased, suggesting that the rush to transport gold to the U.S. may have peaked. These shifts in supply and demand dynamics could influence gold price trends in the near term.

From a technical perspective, gold has struggled to break past the $2,924 resistance level, which marks the start of a downtrend from the peak of $2,956. If the price closes below the $2,900 mid-range level, further declines toward the $2,879–$2,894 range could follow. The current price pattern is expected to take about a week to fully develop, with consolidation likely lasting two to three days. A breakthrough above $2,924 could confirm a continued uptrend, with prices stabilizing in the $2,939–$2,956 range. The market is currently testing key technical levels, with short-term attention focused on whether the intraday pivot at $2,909 can hold as support. A break below this level could lead to a further retracement toward $2,900 or lower.

Silver, on the other hand, is consolidating above the critical resistance level of $32.40, maintaining its position above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). Escalating trade tensions have increased uncertainty about the global economic outlook, boosting demand for safe-haven assets like silver. Additionally, the weakening U.S. dollar has supported silver prices. The dollar index has dropped to around 104.50, marking its lowest level in nearly four months. Concerns over the impact of tariff escalations on the U.S. economy have contributed to dollar weakness. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is fluctuating between 40.00 and 60.00, suggesting that the market may continue its sideways trend for some time.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced extreme volatility over the past week, trading between $78,300 and $95,000. The market’s sharp fluctuations were triggered by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a strategic cryptocurrency reserve that includes BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA, and other assets. This was followed by the official implementation of U.S. tariffs on March 4, prompting retaliatory tariffs from China, Mexico, and Canada, which further fueled market concerns and led to a pullback in Bitcoin’s recent gains. However, the market has since rebounded following remarks from BlackRock’s CEO, and trading activity remains strong. ETF outflows have notably slowed, suggesting that bearish sentiment may have been priced in. Additionally, the Fear Index has dropped to 10, a level historically associated with market bottoms during bear markets, indicating that investors may see this as a buying opportunity.